Description

This analysis provides a forecast of AR prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-02-09 5.459601 6.508170 7.668679 9.043424 10.622312 12.373605 14.457596
2025-02-16 3.552032 4.856634 6.468213 8.582511 11.257760 14.502814 18.706124
2025-02-23 2.423293 3.753331 5.565133 8.160369 11.720018 16.361528 22.788510
2025-03-02 1.702415 2.960923 4.835089 7.736555 12.002141 17.911848 26.555575
2025-03-09 1.298446 2.507321 4.455378 7.680221 12.706353 20.026665 31.219157
2025-03-16 0.991628 2.118648 4.076145 7.524381 13.191418 21.821452 35.540750
2025-03-23 0.852693 1.984237 4.075829 7.951339 14.596216 25.076518 42.249222
2025-03-30 0.701096 1.781569 3.908988 8.054415 15.463362 27.551783 47.941372
2025-04-06 0.572538 1.588439 3.716733 8.070111 16.163392 29.794699 53.412492
2025-04-13 0.467144 1.414666 3.524312 8.046248 16.773416 31.917246 58.818862
2025-04-20 0.432566 1.400880 3.658278 8.668276 18.606804 36.230640 68.106619
2025-04-27 0.376361 1.314784 3.617474 8.927176 19.779455 39.478201 75.799815
2025-05-04 0.329175 1.242452 3.602038 9.253344 21.147078 43.231801 84.716859
2025-05-11 0.269794 1.114503 3.430037 9.218911 21.807236 45.776028 91.728987
2025-05-18 0.210409 0.962136 3.162123 8.924564 21.902616 47.280772 96.993221
2025-05-25 0.159676 0.814908 2.870102 8.520711 21.712920 48.216928 101.270748
2025-06-01 0.130391 0.732602 2.737204 8.478785 22.290793 50.665554 108.479166
2025-06-08 0.103586 0.645856 2.568566 8.316055 22.576347 52.547968 114.724627
2025-06-15 0.095132 0.636139 2.636077 8.783318 24.342739 57.526092 127.159577
2025-06-22 0.080802 0.590705 2.576907 8.896419 25.288682 60.877230 136.605585
2025-06-29 0.067189 0.540512 2.488705 8.913835 26.005736 63.795613 145.354981
2025-07-06 0.055283 0.491490 2.391227 8.887987 26.612001 66.515078 153.848467
2025-07-13 0.053693 0.503806 2.523778 9.564649 29.027432 73.258226 170.765439